refined Prediction Information, explanation, recent texts, monographs, and related patents.
Information & explanations, latest texts & monographs on Prediction (including recent related patents.)


Prediction

Prediction of future events is an ancient human wish. An apocryphal saying states: "it is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future". However, the desire to make predictions remains as strong as ever, and is an important part of almost every aspect of human life. This article is a stub. You can help Wikipedia by expanding it.
Table of contents showTocToggle("show","hide") 1 The place of prediction in the scientific method 1.1 An example of prediction, by Semmelweis: 1.1.1 His hypothetical explanation of this observation 1.1.2 His predicted consequence, from the hypothesis 1.1.3 A test of his prediction 1.1.4 A review of the whole process 1.2 What did he know, and when did he know it? 2 Future topics: 3 Related topics: The place of prediction in the scientific method In the scientific method,
  • "'observe', 'wonder, react and guess', 'predict', 'test' and finally 'review'",
  • a prediction is a logical consequence of some hypothetical explanation of an observation.
An example of prediction, by Semmelweis: In the 1840s the renowned Austro-Hungarian physician Ignaz Semmelweis noticed that women giving birth in the Vienna lying-in Hospital were dying in one building, but surviving in another. His hypothetical explanation of this observation He was forced to consider 'why?'. Thus the hypothesis:
  • "the physicians were a factor in the deaths".
This horrifying proposition impelled Semmelweis to refine the factor. What was the difference between the midwives and the doctors? After more thought, Semmelweis decided that
  • "the cadavers which the student doctors were touching must be part of the factor".
What could the doctors do to avoid the factor? His predicted consequence, from the hypothesis "If the doctors were to 'wash their hands', then the cadaver factor will be avoided" A test of his prediction Semmelweis instructed the student doctors to 'wash their hands', and the women who were attended by the doctors survived. A review of the whole process Semmelweis, 1861. The Etiology, Understanding, and Prophylaxis of Childbed Fever. What did he know, and when did he know it? In this prediction, Semmelweis did not know what the outcome would be. No one knew. In fact, the physicians were offended and outraged that their sacred profession could have been implicated. Thus the element of surprise in a scientific result is essential, because the risk in the prediction is unavoidable. Before the process, Semmelweis did not know the answer. After the process, we all can know. This suggests that our sought-for certainty is a myth, at least in a scientific procedure. Today, of course, hygiene in a hospital is routine, now that the phenomenon of infection is understood. But infection was not understood when Semelweis made his pioneering investigation. Now we can afford the luxury of confidence in the work of Semmelweis, even if we cannot afford a myth of certainty. Future topics: Related topics:
This article is adapted from from Wikipedia All Wikipedia article text is available under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License

The Death of the West: How Dying Populations and Immigrant Invasions Imperil Our Country and Civilization by Patrick J. Buchanan

Tomorrow Now : Envisioning the Next Fifty Years by Bruce Sterling

The Unknown Darkness : Profiling the Predators Among Us by Gregg O. McCrary

The Ultimate Time Machine: A Remote Viewer's Perception of Time, and Predictions for the New Millennium by Joseph McMoneagle

Socionomics: The Science of History and Social Prediction by Robert Prechter

Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scientific Knowledge (Routledge Classics) by Karl Raimund Popper

The Kid's Book of Weather Forecasting: Build a Weather Station, 'Read the Sky' & Make Predictions! (Williamson Kids Can! Series) by Mark Breen

Hire Tough, Manage Easy : How to Find and Hire the Best Hourly Employees by Mel Kleiman

An Introduction to the Bootstrap by Bradley Efron

The Authentic I Ching: The Three Classic Methods of Prediction by Wang Yang

The 2030 Spike: Countdown to Global Catastrophe by Colin Mason

Imagining Space: Achievements, Predictions, Possibilities: 1950-2050 by Roger D. Launius

Criminal Profiling: An Introduction to Behavioral Evidence Analysis (2nd Edition) by Brent E. Turvey

The Death of the West: How Dying Populations and Immigrant Invasions Imperil Our Country and Civilization by Patrick J. Buchanan

The World to Come : The Guides' Long-Awaited Predictions for the Dawning Age by Ruth Montgomery


Recent Prediction related patents

From USPTO:
6718494: Method and apparatus for preventing and recovering from TLB corruption by soft error
6718460: Mechanism for error handling in a computer system
6718457: Multiple-thread processor for threaded software applications
6718454: Systems and methods for prefetch operations to reduce latency associated with memory access
6718434: Method and apparatus for assigning raid levels
6718425: Handheld computer based system for collection, display and analysis of engine/vehicle data
6718403: Hierarchical selection of direct and indirect counting events in a performance monitor unit
6718330: Predictive internet automatic work distributor (Pre-IAWD) and proactive internet automatic work distributor (Pro-IAWD)
6718322: SQL-based analytic algorithm for rule induction
6718315: System and method for approximating probabilities using a decision tree
6718312: Method and system for combinatorial auctions with bid composition restrictions
6718299: Information processing apparatus for integrating a plurality of feature parameters
6718291: Mesh-free method and system for modeling and analysis
6718283: Method and apparatus for predicting heater failure
6718265: Petrophysical property estimation using an acoustic calibration relationship
6718259: Adaptive Kalman filter method for accurate estimation of forward path geometry of an automobile
6718236: Method for conducting a moving vehicle along a trajectory of a coordinated maneuver based on state information broadcast by other vehicles participating in the coordinated maneuver
6718234: System for on line inference of physical and chemical properties and system for on line
6718210: Functional neuromuscular stimulation system
6718189: Method and apparatus for non-invasive blood analyte measurement with fluid compartment equilibration
6718144: Image forming apparatus and process unit mountable to image forming apparatus
6718107: Optical fibre filters
6718073: Arithmetic device, and converter, and their methods
6718061: Method and system for note taking using a form with coded marks
6718052: Image emphasizing device for fingerprint verification
6718047: Watermark embedder and reader
6718036: Linear predictive coding based acoustic echo cancellation
6718035: Echo canceller employing dual-H architecture having split adaptive gain settings
6717988: Scalable MPEG-2 decoder
6717987: Video compression method and apparatus employing error generation and error compression
6717985: Technique for efficiently equalizing a transmission channel in a data transmission system
6717978: Method and apparatus for system time alignment
6717955: Data communications method and apparatus
6717948: Knowledge-based connection admission method and apparatus for providing efficient multiplexing of data and speech over AAL2
6717613: Block deformation removing filter
6717607: Method and system for video conferences
6717585: Color conversion characteristic determining method, image display device, and recording medium
6717535: System and method for preventing input of variable length codes from being interrupted
6717431: Method for semiconductor yield loss calculation
6716965: Adipocyte complement related protein zacrp13
6716607: Chicken interferon gene and novel recombinant DNA
6716589: Discordant helix stabilization for prevention of amyloid formation
6716583: Methods of producing nucleic acid ligands
6716582: Cellular arrays for the identification of altered gene expression
6716523: Spandex and it's preparation with dispersant slurry
6716433: Group a streptococcal vaccines
6716428: Antigenic modification of polypeptides
6716414: Stable pharmaceutical solution formulations for pressurized metered dose inhalers
6716359: Enhanced time-based proportional control

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